- Bitcoin rally aligns with increasing odds of a Trump win, says analyst “The Giver”
- October’s Bitcoin surge reaches a high of $73,600, near its all-time peak
- Speculation suggests Bitcoin’s value may drop after election as “Trump trade” unwinds
Bitcoin’s recent price rise has sparked interest from investors, who may see it as a possible hedge against the outcome of the upcoming U.S. presidential election. As of October 29, Bitcoin reached $73,600, just shy of its all-time high, a development that some analysts attribute to former President Donald Trump’s increasing odds in election forecasts.
The pseudonymous crypto analyst “The Giver” suggests that Bitcoin may be reflecting a hedge against a Trump win. Rather than directly influencing Bitcoin’s value, Trump’s rising odds seem to represent a hedge opportunity. In an October 30 post, “The Giver” emphasized that Bitcoin is acting as a liquid asset that investors use as a placeholder for potential Trump-related market outcomes.
Source: “The Giver” on X
Market Reactions and Broader Economic Implications
The lead-up to the election has been significant for the crypto market, with Bitcoin reaching prices above $70,000 in late October. Data from Polymarket, a popular decentralized prediction platform, aligns Bitcoin’s October price increases with rising election odds for Trump. On October 16, Bitcoin hit $68,200 as Trump’s odds reached 60.2%, while a rise to over $70,000 on October 28 coincided with further gains in Trump’s predicted chances.
Though Bitcoin’s correlation with Trump’s odds appears evident, some analysts caution that broader economic conditions and liquidity trends may still be too limited to sustain a major post-election rally.
Institutional Insights and Market Predictions
The liquidity environment remains complex, with analysts noting that current conditions may limit Bitcoin’s capacity to reach new heights. Some analysts believe that quantitative easing policies, which previously boosted Bitcoin’s value, are not strong enough this time to guarantee significant upward momentum in Bitcoin’s post-election pricing.
Looking further, some, including analysts at Bitfinex, foresee a potential Bitcoin surge to $80,000 by late 2024, backed by structured options in the crypto market and the prospect of a Republican-led administration.
