- Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick said bitcoin could revisit its all-time high of $73,800 in the lead-up to the U.S. presidential election
- Factors driving this potential price rise include a steepening U.S. Treasury yield curve, renewed interest in spot bitcoin ETFs, and rising odds of a Donald Trump victory
- MicroStrategy’s rising stock value relative to bitcoin’s price could signal increased confidence in the company’s evolving role in facilitating bitcoin adoption among institutions
Standard Chartered‘s Geoff Kendrick said bitcoin is gaining upward momentum and could approach its all-time high of $73,800 in the lead-up to the US presidential election. Kendrick cited factors like the steepening Treasury yield curve, renewed interest in spot bitcoin ETFs, and Donald Trump’s rising odds of winning the election as fueling bitcoin’s bullish price action.
Steepening Yield Curve
Kendrick observed that bitcoin and other digital assets have finally started to rise in response to the steepening of the 2s10s yield curve, the difference between the 2-year and 10-year US Treasury yields. This shift, triggered by stronger-than-expected US CPI data, signals increasing market volatility and anticipation of potential interest rate hikes, which often drives demand for alternative assets like bitcoin.
Donald Trump’s Election Odds
Kendrick highlighted that Donald Trump’s odds of winning the US presidential election have risen to 56.3% according to Polymarket. With only three weeks until the election, Trump’s increased chances could be a significant factor propelling bitcoin upward. The probability of a Republican sweep, with Trump winning and Republicans controlling Congress, is 39%.
Spot Bitcoin ETF Inflows
According to SoSoValue, US spot bitcoin ETFs saw their largest single-day net inflows since June on Monday, with $558 million entering 10 out of 12 ETFs. This fresh institutional interest adds momentum.
Increased Options Activity
On crypto derivatives exchange Deribit, Kendrick pointed to increased activity in bitcoin call options at the $80,000 strike price for December expiry. Over 1,500 bitcoin were added to open interest for these calls, suggesting institutional bets on a large price surge.
MicroStrategy’s Growing Role
MicroStrategy’s stock price has diverged from and outperformed bitcoin recently. Its rising net asset value multiple could reflect increasing confidence in its evolving position in digital assets, Kendrick said. Factors like BNY Mellon’s accounting exemption for MicroStrategy’s bitcoin holdings and its plans to offer bitcoin lending and capital market products are driving this.
Conclusion
Kendrick concluded that growing legitimacy of crypto, through vehicles like spot ETFs and companies like MicroStrategy, combined with bullish political developments, provides tailwinds for bitcoin into the election. The broader institutional adoption trend remains intact regardless of the election outcome.
