- Bitcoin bulls aim for $72,000 as the BTC futures premium hits a 5-week high, indicating cautious optimism among traders.
- The bullish momentum is fueled by factors like expectations of interest rate cuts by the Fed in 2024, the end of Bitcoin selling from the German government, and a more constructive regulatory view on crypto, especially in the US.
- The Bitcoin options 25 delta skew suggests traders are slightly optimistic about short-term price movements, with the last time Bitcoin options showed similar confidence being on May 20.
The price of Bitcoin has surged in recent days, fueled by growing confidence in the crypto market. Traders now believe the top cryptocurrency could rally to $72,000, despite ongoing uncertainty in global markets.
BTC Price Jumps to 40-Day High
The price of Bitcoin rose to its highest level in 40 days on July 22, reaching an intraday peak of $68,518. The 19.4% gains in 10 days were fueled by several key factors:
- Investors becoming more confident the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in 2024
- The end of Bitcoin selling by the German government
- A more constructive regulatory view, especially in the US
Futures Premium Reaches 5-Week High
The bullish momentum led the Bitcoin futures premium, a key gauge of trader sentiment, to its highest level in five weeks. Traders are now debating whether the current scenario favors a rally to $72,000.
President Biden’s Reelection Decision Has Limited Impact
President Biden’s decision not to run for reelection increased the odds of a Trump/Vance victory in 2024. Vance has disclosed substantial Bitcoin holdings and voted to limit bank restrictions on crypto assets.
However, the Fed and SEC’s independence limits the impact of politics on crypto regulation. Jerome Powell and Gary Gensler, chairs of the Fed and SEC, have terms extending past the 2024 election.
Growing Odds of Fed Rate Cuts
While a July rate cut is unlikely, futures suggest 47% odds of two cuts by year-end, up from 20% a month ago. Disappointing stimulus news from China, the world’s #2 economy, adds pressure on central banks.
Bitcoin Derivatives Point to $72,000
The Bitcoin monthly futures premium hit 13% on July 22, the highest in five weeks. While below the June peak of 16%, it indicates cautious optimism among pro traders.
Meanwhile, the 25 delta skew metric remains around -9, suggesting traders see upside ahead. The last similar signal was on May 20.
The data suggests a healthy Bitcoin bull market targeting $72,000, driven by geopolitics, central bank policy, and improving crypto regulation.
