- AVAX saw a 10% bounce after dipping below $15, but resistance near $17.78–$19.62 could block further gains due to heavy sell pressure from underwater holders.
- Bearish indicators dominate, with the Chaikin Money Flow and MACD both signaling continued selling pressure and weak buyer momentum.
- Unless the technicals flip and AVAX breaks past key resistance, a retrace toward $14.64 looks more likely than a rally toward $23.47.
Avalanche (AVAX) saw a decent 10% bump over the last day, climbing back above $16 after dipping below $15 earlier this week. The pop follows a slight recovery across the broader crypto market after the weekend’s rough sell-off. But here’s the thing—it doesn’t necessarily mean smooth sailing from here.
Even with that rebound, signs are pointing to possible trouble ahead, and some analysts are saying: don’t get too comfy just yet.
The Bears Still Have the Edge
One of the more telling metrics right now is the Bulls and Bears Indicator. This thing looks at addresses that control at least 1% of the trading volume—so basically the big players, not your average retail trader.
Normally, if bullish addresses outnumber bears, it’s a green flag. But that’s not the case at the moment.
According to data from IntoTheBlock, it’s the bears who are showing up in force. That kind of sell-side pressure could easily cap any rally AVAX tries to put together in the short term.
Resistance Is Stacked Up Around $17.78
Another issue? The IOMAP (In/Out of the Money Around Price) data isn’t looking great either. This metric checks how many tokens are in profit vs. loss at different price points. When a big chunk of holders are in the red at a certain level, it becomes tough for the price to break through—because they’re just waiting to sell and exit.
Right now, a ton of addresses—over 155k of them—are holding AVAX at losses in the $17.78 to $19.62 range. That’s a big wall of resistance. In contrast, support between $14.49 and $16.99 is comparatively weaker.
So unless something major shifts, getting past that $17.78 line won’t be easy.
Technicals Still Point Bearish
Technically speaking, things aren’t too hot either. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is sitting in the red. It’s currently at -0.02, which basically means more coins are being sold than bought—so distribution > accumulation.
Also, the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) is still below zero, showing bearish momentum. If that doesn’t flip soon, AVAX might be heading back down toward $14.64 support. That’s a spot it’s flirted with before—and could revisit if pressure keeps building.
On the flip side, if we get a reversal in the MACD and CMF ticks upward, we might see AVAX retest that big resistance zone around $23.47. But that’s a big “if.”
Bottom Line? AVAX might’ve bounced, but the setup’s still shaky. Until we see stronger volume, a flip in key indicators, and a break above that big resistance zone, bulls might wanna keep their guard up.
