- Post-election regulatory environment is more important for Ethereum and other altcoins than Bitcoin, according to Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan.
- A Donald Trump win would be more impactful for Ethereum and altcoins as it could provide greater regulatory clarity, driving institutional adoption.
- Bitcoin already has more regulatory clarity, with the SEC and CFTC declaring it a commodity and the embrace of spot bitcoin ETFs.
The 2024 US presidential election is just days away, and Bitcoin’s price has been approaching new all-time highs. This momentum is partly driven by the election, and many are speculating how the results could impact the cryptocurrency market.
Bitwise’s Predictions
According to Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, a Trump victory would likely have more of an impact on Ethereum and altcoins than Bitcoin. Hougan believes Bitcoin already has solid regulatory clarity and embrace from institutions, so it will continue rising either way. However, increased regulatory clarity under Trump could particularly benefit Ethereum and smaller cap coins.
Current Polling
Most national polls still show a close race between Trump and Harris. However, prediction markets like Polymarket have shown Trump’s odds rising to around 70%, his highest yet. A Republican sweep of the presidency, Senate and House could pave the way for crypto-friendly legislation.
Regulatory Differences
Hougan explained that the major altcoins have more regulatory uncertainty than Bitcoin, which has already been declared a commodity by the SEC and CFTC. Under a Republican administration, Hougan predicts the SEC will provide more guidance that drives institutional adoption of Ethereum and altcoins.
Bitcoin’s Path Forward
While increased regulatory clarity would help, Hougan emphasized Bitcoin can succeed without support from politicians. He believes Bitcoin will continue its momentum in 2025 and beyond, with Democrats likely taking a neutral stance on the industry if they sweep Congress.
In summary, Bitwise believes the post-election regulatory environment will have an outsized impact on Ethereum and smaller cap altcoins. However, the firm remains bullish on Bitcoin’s future regardless of who wins the 2024 election.
