- Polymarket now gives ADA a 79% chance of ETF approval, backed by bullish Bloomberg analysts.
- ADA price is oversold, with technicals hinting at a possible short-term rebound.
- ETF buzz follows BlackRock’s $70B Bitcoin fund success, triggering altcoin fund optimism.
Things are heating up for Cardano. Polymarket traders have now bumped the odds of a spot ADA ETF approval to 79%, the highest level ever seen for the token on the prediction platform. The renewed optimism? It mostly follows a fresh round of bullish projections from Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart, who’ve slapped a 90% approval chance on it.
That’s… a big jump.
And the mood’s contagious. Confidence is growing thanks to what looks like some productive back-and-forth between ETF issuers and the SEC. Grayscale, which already handles Bitcoin and Ethereum funds, filed an ETF proposal for Cardano earlier this year via NYSE Arca. Apparently, the vibes are shifting—analysts are starting to believe the SEC is warming up to altcoin ETFs.
“Good Mood” at the SEC? Balchunas Thinks So
Balchunas took to X recently, saying the chances of ETFs for ADA, Dogecoin, and XRP are all looking better than ever. According to him, the SEC’s tone has changed—for the better. He and Seyffart are also putting 95% odds on approvals for Avalanche, Polkadot, and Litecoin funds.
Their case? Well, Bitcoin ETFs paved the way. Just look at BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT). It pulled in $70 billion in assets in just 341 days, becoming the largest U.S. ETF launch of all time. Yeah. That’s hard to ignore.
ADA Price Dips, But Chart Shows a Possible Reversal Brewing
As of now, ADA’s trading at $0.5768, down about 3.85% on the day. Not the most exciting number… but there’s more to the story. Trading volume has spiked 61%, hitting $745.2 million, which is usually a sign that something’s shifting under the surface.
The RSI is deep in oversold territory at 29.91, and ADA’s brushing the lower edge of the Bollinger Bands—specifically at $0.5668. In the past, that’s the kind of setup that tends to snap back hard. Traders are on watch.
Zooming out, ADA’s still sitting inside a broad ascending wedge on the daily chart. And that wedge? It’s been the launchpad for past 200–300% rallies. Analysts are eyeing a possible retest of the $2.40 zone if support holds and ETF hype keeps building.
Bitcoin ETF Boom Sets the Stage for Altcoin Funds
With Bitcoin ETFs killing it, everyone’s trying to bottle that magic. BlackRock’s IBIT saw over a month straight of inflows in June—seriously, 31 consecutive days. And it’s barely a year old. The demand is very real.
But Ethereum ETFs? Not quite the same story. Since launching in July 2024, inflows have been lukewarm. According to Glassnode, the average Ethereum ETF investor was still “significantly underwater” through May. Ouch.
Final Thoughts
ETF fever is spreading, and Cardano might be next in line for a breakout moment. With Polymarket odds at record highs, volume surging, and technicals hinting at a reversal, the setup’s looking spicy.
Still, as always—it’s crypto. Stay sharp.
