- TAO is pulling back after strong gains, likely within a broader range
- Key support levels sit around $233 and $194 for potential entries
- A drop below $143 would invalidate the current bullish outlook
The AI crypto sector had a pretty solid run not too long ago, especially toward the end of March and into early April. Market cap jumped from around $16.2 billion to just over $19 billion, which is a noticeable 17% climb in a short window. Naturally, tokens like Bittensor (TAO), being one of the biggest players in that space, moved up with it.
But things cooled off. Over the past week, TAO has pulled back along with the rest of the sector, and now the question floating around is simple, is this just a healthy retracement… or something a bit more concerning?
Bigger Picture Shows a Range, Not a Breakdown
Looking at the weekly chart, TAO doesn’t exactly scream trend. It’s been stuck in a wide range between roughly $163 and $493 for a while now, ever since those early 2025 losses shook things up. There was a moment in February where price dipped below a previous swing low, which at first glance looked bearish, but it didn’t really follow through.
Instead, price bounced back fairly quickly toward the $360 area. That kind of move often points more toward a liquidity sweep than a true breakdown. So rather than a clean shift in structure, it feels more like the range is still intact, just being tested.
Right now, TAO is sitting below that mid-range resistance around $330, and hasn’t quite managed to break through it yet. So technically, this current move lower fits within a retracement phase, not necessarily a reversal.
Short-Term Structure Still Leans Bullish
Dropping down to the daily chart, things look a bit more encouraging, at least from a structural standpoint. The recent move up from the range lows still holds, and despite the pullback, the overall trend hasn’t flipped bearish just yet.
Using Fibonacci levels from that recent upward push, key areas to watch sit around $233 and then lower near $194. That zone, often called the “golden pocket,” tends to attract buyers if the broader structure remains intact. So if price drifts into that region, it could become an interesting spot for a bounce… though not guaranteed, of course.
Some Warning Signs Are Still There
That said, it’s not all clean. One thing that stands out is the On-Balance Volume, which has actually made new lows even as price bounced earlier. That’s not exactly what you want to see, it suggests underlying demand might be weaker than it looks on the surface.
There’s also the broader market to consider. If Bitcoin decides to pull back, which always seems possible, TAO probably won’t be immune to that pressure. So while the setup leans bullish, it’s not without risk, not even close.
A Line in the Sand for Bulls
For those looking at this as a potential buying opportunity, there’s a clear level that kind of defines the idea. If TAO drops below $143, that would break the structure in a more meaningful way, and likely invalidate the bullish setup entirely.
Until then, though, this pullback looks more like a pause within a range, not the start of a deeper collapse. Still, patience might be key here, jumping in too early rarely ends well.
