- XRP has lost a critical support level, with downside pressure building on higher timeframes
- Long-term fundamentals remain strong, but they are unlikely to impact price in the near term
- Short-term technicals favor selling rallies unless price can reclaim key resistance levels
Ripple’s XRP has failed to hold the local swing low around $1.77, a level that had already been flagged as a clear make-or-break zone. Once price slipped below it, the tone shifted fast, and not in a good way. At the time of writing, the April 2025 low near $1.61 was also starting to look vulnerable, adding pressure to an already weak structure.
On the higher timeframes, capital flow metrics didn’t offer much comfort either. The Chaikin Money Flow stayed below -0.05, pointing to sustained outflows, while the RSI only briefly managed to reclaim the neutral 50 mark. That short-lived strength showed up in early January, when XRP pushed above $2.28 and flipped the three-day structure bullish, but the move faded quicker than many expected.
Momentum fades as sellers regain control
That January breakout never really followed through. Bulls struggled to clear the $2.40 resistance zone, and once Bitcoin rolled over, any remaining momentum drained out. Without strong, consistent demand, XRP was left exposed, and sellers stepped back in with confidence.
The broader context didn’t help much either. With BTC under pressure, risk appetite across the market softened, and Ripple bulls were unable to swim against that current. The result was a slow grind lower rather than a sharp collapse, which can sometimes be even more frustrating for dip buyers.
Long-term fundamentals still matter
Zooming out, the long-term story hasn’t disappeared. Ripple’s fundamentals remain solid, and that’s likely to attract investor interest again once market conditions stabilize. The creation of a Ripple treasury and the securing of regulatory licenses across multiple jurisdictions should support XRP demand over time, while also helping expand adoption of RLUSD, Ripple Labs’ stablecoin.
There’s also more room for growth within the XRPL ecosystem itself. Treasury firm Evernorth has signaled plans to activate idle XRP through its proposed XRP Lending Protocol, which could quietly boost utility and demand. Still, these are slow-burn developments, not catalysts for the next few weeks, and price action doesn’t always wait for fundamentals to catch up.
Short-term outlook favors the bears
From a technical perspective, the near-term bias remains bearish. On the four-hour chart, a rebound into the $1.85 to $1.94 zone would likely be viewed as a selling opportunity rather than the start of a recovery. Short sellers could look toward $1.50 and $1.39 as potential profit targets if downside momentum continues.
Both the daily and three-day structures are still pointing lower, which gives bears added confidence. A four-hour close above $1.85 would be an early sign that this view might be wrong, while a move beyond $1.94 would invalidate the setup entirely. Any sustained rally above $2, though, would mark the first real step toward a broader recovery.
