- Standard Chartered warns Bitcoin could drop to $50,000 and Ethereum to $1,400
- ETF holdings are down 25% from October 2025 highs, signaling institutional selling
- Despite near-term weakness, the bank maintains $100K BTC and $4K ETH targets
Standard Chartered has lowered its near-term forecasts for digital assets, projecting that Bitcoin could fall to $50,000 while Ethereum may test $1,400. The downgrade reflects fading investor risk appetite and persistent macro headwinds rather than a structural collapse in crypto fundamentals.
Geoff Kendrick, the bank’s head of digital assets research, pointed to weak price action, subdued ETF inflows, and unsupportive macroeconomic conditions as the main drivers. While he noted the current downturn is less severe than 2022, he acknowledged prices have already fallen sharply, and downward pressure remains in place.
ETF Flows Are Sending a Clear Signal
One of the more concerning data points is the decline in Bitcoin ETF holdings. According to Kendrick, ETF holdings have dropped about 25% from their October 2025 peak. That suggests institutions are trimming exposure rather than accumulating during weakness.
Many investors are also sitting on sizable unrealized losses. In volatile markets, that can create a feedback loop. Losses trigger risk reduction, which leads to more selling, which keeps inflows muted. It’s not panic, exactly, but it’s defensive positioning.
Macro Conditions Aren’t Helping
The broader macro backdrop remains uncertain. Mixed US economic data and expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady until a potential leadership change in June are dampening enthusiasm for risk assets. When rate-cut hopes fade, speculative flows into crypto often slow as well.
In that environment, Bitcoin and Ethereum may struggle to find sustained buying momentum. Without strong ETF inflows or macro tailwinds, rallies tend to fade quickly, especially when liquidity is thin.
Near-Term Pain, Long-Term Optimism
Despite the cautious short-term view, Kendrick remains constructive on crypto’s longer trajectory. Standard Chartered continues to maintain year-end targets of $100,000 for Bitcoin and $4,000 for Ethereum. That signals confidence in a recovery through 2026 once macro conditions stabilize and capital flows normalize.
This split outlook, bearish short term but bullish long term, reflects the current tension in crypto markets. Structural adoption narratives remain intact, but liquidity and sentiment are still fragile.
Conclusion
Standard Chartered’s revised forecasts highlight the delicate balance crypto faces right now. Near-term downside risks remain, especially if ETF outflows continue and macro uncertainty lingers. But the bank’s long-term targets suggest it views the current weakness as cyclical rather than existential.
For investors, that means volatility may persist in the coming months. The bigger question isn’t whether crypto will recover, but how much turbulence markets are willing to endure before that recovery begins.
