- Standard Chartered cut its 2025 Bitcoin target from $200K to $100K
- ETF inflows have dropped to the lowest level since launch
- Strategy continues buying BTC, but corporate demand is no longer enough to drive the rally
Standard Chartered has sharply revised its 2025 Bitcoin forecast, lowering its year-end target from $200,000 to $100,000 as market conditions weaken and institutional momentum slows. The bank also pushed its ambitious long-term projection of $500,000 out to 2030, signaling that the path to higher valuations will take longer than previously expected. Analysts cited fading demand and reduced appetite from major institutions as the key drivers behind the downgrade.
Strategy’s accumulation slows the rally but can’t sustain upside alone
A major source of Bitcoin’s 2025 strength was the aggressive accumulation led by Strategy, which added 10,754 BTC in the past two weeks and now holds more than 660,600 BTC. However, Standard Chartered now believes that the “corporate-driven rally” has largely run its course. With corporate buying no longer accelerating, analysts say Bitcoin increasingly depends on ETF inflows to drive the next leg higher—yet inflows have slumped.
ETF inflows hit their lowest level since launch
US spot Bitcoin ETFs are now seeing just 50,000 BTC in quarterly inflows, the weakest level since their debut. Standard Chartered notes that this cooling demand significantly reduces Bitcoin’s upside pressure, especially with ETFs previously serving as the strongest bullish catalyst of 2024 and early 2025. Without fresh institutional fuel, the near-term momentum looks fragile.
Macro uncertainty and Fed pressure weigh on expectations
The bank also pointed to macro and political uncertainty as reasons for the lowered forecast. Bitcoin has paused its uptrend, and the Federal Reserve is now facing political pressure over future rate cuts. Ambiguous monetary policy undercuts one of Bitcoin’s strongest catalysts: liquidity expansion. Until clarity returns, Standard Chartered believes Bitcoin may struggle to regain steady upward momentum.
