- Bitcoin closed last week around $110,591, with momentum fading fast after Powell’s hawkish comments.
- Key support sits at $106,900, but repeated tests raise the risk of a drop toward $104,000 or even $96,000.
- Bulls need a strong macro tailwind — like lower inflation or a Nasdaq rebound — to flip sentiment before bears push Bitcoin under $100K.
Last week didn’t go quite how Bitcoin traders hoped. Things actually started off promising — a solid push early in the week into resistance levels got bulls excited — but that optimism didn’t last long. By Thursday, the market gave it all back, sliding right back to the week’s lows. The Fed’s 25 basis point rate cut came as expected, but Chair Powell’s cautious tone instantly killed the “more cuts ahead” narrative that bulls were banking on. By Sunday’s close, Bitcoin settled near $110,591 — not exactly catastrophic, but far from inspiring confidence either.
Support Under Pressure: $106,900 May Not Hold Forever
The key level right now is $106,900, which has held up twice already at the 0.146 Fibonacci retracement. It gave traders a small bounce last week, but the more it’s tested, the weaker it becomes. If that level breaks decisively, things could unravel fast. The next stops would likely be around $104,000, and below that, a deeper drop toward $96,000 seems inevitable. Losing $100K could shake sentiment hard, especially with volume fading and momentum shifting.
The issue for bulls is that each failed rally keeps stacking new resistance zones on the chart. Price closed below the 21-day EMA, currently hovering near $111,000, and that’s also right where the Point of Control (POC) sits. That means the market’s most active price level is now acting as a ceiling. If Bitcoin can reclaim and close above $111,000, there’s room to run to $114,600, and maybe $122,000 after that. But until those levels break, bears have the upper hand.
Outlook for the Week: The Risk of a Breakdown Grows
Heading into this week, things don’t look great for bulls. The momentum has clearly shifted, and unless there’s a burst of strong buying volume, Bitcoin is at risk of slipping below $106,900. Once that level goes, traders will be watching $104,000 for a reaction — though it’s already been tested twice, meaning support there might be flimsy. If that cracks too, $96,000 becomes the next logical magnet.
The daily chart is leaning heavily bearish, and Monday’s early price action already shows Bitcoin dipping toward that critical lower zone. Bulls probably need a macro catalyst — something like softer inflation data or renewed optimism in equities — to turn the tide. Without that, the market looks primed for another leg lower.
Macro Factors: Nasdaq, CPI, and the Bigger Picture
In the short term, Bitcoin’s fate might be tied more to traditional markets than crypto-specific news. The Nasdaq’s recent weakness isn’t helping risk assets at all. If tech stocks keep sliding, Bitcoin’s odds of mounting a sustained bounce get even slimmer.
Traders will be eyeing the November 13 CPI report, hoping inflation data cools enough to revive expectations of another Fed cut in December. That’s the type of catalyst bulls desperately need. Otherwise, the narrative stays the same: bears control the field, and every failed bounce just adds more pressure.
