- Bitcoin rallies past $122K, nearing its all-time high of $124,480
- Standard Chartered projects $200K BTC by year-end amid U.S. shutdown
- Historical Q4 trends and macro signals suggest a major breakout ahead
Bitcoin has stormed into the fourth quarter of 2025 with a powerful rally, jumping more than 12% in just a week. The world’s largest cryptocurrency surged from around $109,000 on September 27 to over $122,000 today, placing it within striking distance of its August all-time high of $124,480. Traders are now watching closely as institutional momentum builds, with many asking if this is the start of Bitcoin’s next parabolic run.
Standard Chartered’s Bold Projection
According to Geoff Kendrick, head of digital assets at Standard Chartered, Bitcoin could reach $135,000 in the short term and as high as $200,000 by year-end. Kendrick argues that prolonged U.S. fiscal uncertainty, driven by the government shutdown, is reinforcing Bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge. He highlighted Bitcoin’s historical correlation with Treasury term premiums, suggesting that continued stress in traditional markets could be the catalyst for Bitcoin’s next leg higher.
Market Catalysts Align
Beyond macro conditions, other key indicators are flashing bullish. Global M2 money supply growth, rising stablecoin issuance, and gold’s rally — which Bitcoin tends to follow with a lag — all support the case for higher prices. Analysts at JPMorgan even see BTC undervalued relative to gold, suggesting potential upside toward $165,000 if demand for “debasement trades” accelerates. Meanwhile, institutional demand through ETFs and custody services continues to expand, providing stronger foundations than in previous cycles.
Q4 Historical Trends Support Rally
History also seems to be on Bitcoin’s side. In years like 2015, 2016, 2023, and 2024, positive September closes led to powerful fourth-quarter rallies, often averaging gains above 50%. With September closing 5% higher at $114,000 and October already off to a blazing start, traders and investors are bracing for what could be another historic year-end run.
