- Bitcoin is consolidating near $110,000 with support at $107,000 and resistance at $123,000.
- Eric Trump predicted BTC could hit $1M by 2025, but Polymarket gives only a 5% chance above $125K.
- Technicals show oversold conditions, hinting at rebound potential, though probability models remain cautious.
Bitcoin has been hovering near $110,000 through late September, consolidating as traders argue over what comes next. Some are eyeing the $123,000 level as the line in the sand—if BTC clears it, momentum could shift bullish into year-end. But forecasts are split. On one side, political voices are calling for wild parabolic moves, while on the other, probability-based models keep flashing caution.
Political Forecasts Push Big Numbers
Eric Trump stirred the pot earlier this month, predicting Bitcoin could hit $1 million by the end of 2025. His optimism leaned on two main arguments: the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve—rolled out in March 2025 under the Trump administration—and BTC’s history of strong Q4 rallies. The idea of the U.S. holding Bitcoin on a national level definitely caught attention, but markets didn’t buy the hype entirely.
Prediction markets like Polymarket put just a 5% chance on BTC climbing above $125,000 by September. That’s a huge gap between political talk and statistical modeling. Analysts reminded traders that such forecasts often move sentiment in the short term, but rarely drive sustainable price action. Technical setups and liquidity flows tend to have more weight than political cheerleading.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Oversold but Holding Support
Chart watchers see BTC maintaining critical support near $107,300, a level that has acted as a floor for several weeks. Analyst Kamran Asghar pointed out a possible “three-wave pump” scenario, which he says could push price toward $123,731 if support holds and buyers step in. His argument echoes past rallies where Bitcoin launched higher off similar structures.
Momentum indicators are also hinting at recovery potential. The RSI dipped under 30 in late September, putting BTC into oversold territory. Historically, that reading has often preceded short-term rebounds. Still, prediction markets remain unconvinced—Polymarket assigns less than a 1% probability for a near-term push above $124,000. The disconnect shows how models built on stats differ from traders leaning on history and cycles.
Broader Market Drivers for Bitcoin Price
While Trump’s $1 million forecast grabbed headlines, analysts say long-term direction will be decided by technical markers and structural shifts. Bitcoin’s current range is defined between $107,000 support and $123,000 resistance. Breaking above the ceiling would mark a major technical shift and likely invite more inflows. Losing support, on the other hand, could drag BTC into deeper corrections.
Volatility remains the defining trait here, making it difficult to reconcile speculative predictions with cold probability math. At press time, BTC was still hovering near $110,000, with traders watching closely to see if the coin can consolidate enough to attack resistance.
Outlook for Q4 2025
The final quarter of the year is shaping up to be critical. A close above $123,000 would validate bullish momentum and potentially open the path to higher levels. Oversold signals give the bulls some hope, but forecast models still suggest the odds are slim. As for Trump’s million-dollar target—it sits far outside what probability-based forecasts are willing to back.
For now, the short-term game comes down to two numbers: hold support around $107,000, and push through $123,000. Until one of those levels breaks, Bitcoin remains locked in consolidation, waiting for its next decisive move.
