- Prediction markets surged toward Donald Trump on Tuesday night as the first election results started coming in, with his odds of winning increasing significantly on various platforms.
- Trump’s chances jumped to 69% on Kalshi, 64 cents on PredictIt, and 73% on IBKR Forecast Trader from Interactive Brokers, up from lower levels earlier in the day.
- Financial markets also reacted to the potential Trump victory, with the dollar, Treasury yields, Bitcoin, and shares of Trump’s media company all rising after hours.
Prediction markets took a sharp turn toward Donald Trump on Tuesday night as the first states were called in the presidential election. This article provides an overview of how betting odds have shifted as election results start rolling in.
Early State Results
So far, reliably Republican and Democratic states have been called: Indiana, Kentucky, West Virginia, Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Florida, Tennessee, and Arkansas are in Donald Trump’s column. Vermont, Maryland, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Illinois, and Delaware are in Kamala Harris‘s column.
No swing states have been called yet, but there are signs Trump has improved over his 2020 performance in other states like Florida and New Hampshire.
Shifts in Prediction Markets
According to Kalshi, Trump’s odds of winning jumped to 69% from 57% at the start of the day. On PredictIt, a contract for Trump winning the election leapt to 64 cents from 54 cents on Monday. On the new IBKR Forecast Trader from Interactive Brokers, Trump’s odds soared to 73% from 59% at the start of the day.
Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, showed Trump’s chances had shot up to 71% Tuesday evening from 62% early in the morning.
Impact on Financial Markets
Meanwhile, financial markets have also started to price in a Trump victory as the dollar, Treasury yields, Bitcoin, and shares of Trump Media and Technology took off in after-hours trading.
Pre-Election Odds
Last week and over the weekend, prediction markets had shown strong momentum for Harris, who even took the lead briefly on a few exchanges.
Bolstering Harris’s prospects was Saturday’s closely watched Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll conducted by Selzer & Co. that showed Harris leading Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters.
Conclusion
Betting markets took a sharp turn toward Trump as election night unfolded. His odds surged on various prediction marketplaces while financial markets also reacted strongly. This reversed the momentum Harris had going into Election Day. We will have to wait for more states to be called to see where this volatile election is heading.
