• Bernstein sees bitcoin topping $70,000 as market sentiment turns “risk-on”
• Bernstein recommends seeking long exposure through bitcoin ETFs and some crypto-related stocks like Robinhood, Riot Platforms, CleanSpark, and Marathon Digital Holdings
• Bitcoin is back to strong ETF inflows with $2 billion in fresh purchases last week, taking year-to-date flows to $20.5 billion and assets under management crossing $63 billion
Bitcoin could finally break above $70,000 as stocks continue hitting new records and the U.S. presidential election approaches. According to Bernstein, now is a good time to increase exposure to bitcoin.
Bitcoin Testing $70,000 Resistance
Bitcoin is again testing $70,000, something it’s done several times this year after reaching a new record above $73,000 in March. This time could be different, according to Bernstein.
The end of “Uptober,” crypto investors’ name for bitcoin’s historically strongest month of the year, is around the corner. The U.S. general election, widely seen as a key short-term catalyst for bitcoin, will follow.
Demand for bitcoin ETFs is back and the S&P 500 just sealed a six-week rally. “BTCCM YTD mountain. Bitcoin has attempted to break through $70,000 several times this year. Bitcoin is attempting a break out of the $70,000 resistance one more time and like other risk-on markets is interpreting rising Trump odds as bullish for crypto,” Bernstein analysts said.
Sentiment Screaming ‘Risk-On’
“With clear policy statements supporting crypto from the Harris campaign, the market seems less worried about downside and finds it attractive to bid here,” Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani said.
“Bitcoin ETF inflows, crypto equity markets and retail trading sentiment are screaming risk-on,” they added.
Earlier attempts led to brief forays above $70,000, but over the weekend bitcoin rose as high as $69,480 according to Coin Metrics.
Election Outlook
While some see the election as binary, with a Trump victory sending bitcoin to a new all-time high around $80,000 and a Harris win potentially dropping it to around $40,000, the most bullish argue bitcoin could hit six figures in 2025 regardless of the election outcome.
Bernstein recommends seeking long exposure through bitcoin ETFs and some crypto-related stocks.
Bitcoin ETF Inflows Picking Up
Bitcoin is back to strong ETF inflows with $2 billion in fresh purchases just last week, Chhugani said. Total year-to-date flows are at $20.5 billion and assets under management crossed $63 billion.
“We believe the incremental ETF inflows are now increasingly leading to bitcoin spot demand given asset managers have focused on distribution to wealth advisors and wirehouses, unlike initial ETF demand which came from the spot-CME derivatives carry trade mostly from hedge funds and arb funds,” he said.
Crypto Stocks Reflecting Bullish Sentiment
In stocks, Chhugani highlighted Robinhood, whose trading data and revenue indicate continued risk-on sentiment.
He also mentioned Riot Platforms, CleanSpark and Mara Holdings, which have all posted double-digit gains in the past 30 days. “Their outperformance reflects underlying bullish sentiment for the bitcoin asset class vs. the compute/energy thesis which investors have favored so far,” he said.
Bitcoin is up 9% in the same period.
