- $3.38B in Bitcoin options set to expire Sept. 5, with bearish-leaning sentiment as puts make up nearly 30% of today’s trades.
- BTC pushes above $112,500, but analysts warn September’s history of weak performance and institutional rollovers could weigh on momentum.
- On-chain relief signs emerge, as long-term holders ease selling, hinting at possible late-month upside if demand strengthens.
Bitcoin’s back in the spotlight with a huge $3.38 billion worth of options expiring on September 5, and traders are bracing for what could be another bumpy ride. Implied volatility, which had cooled off last month, just bounced back to around 40%—a clear sign that the market is expecting some turbulence. BTC has been clawing its way up, hitting $112,500 after a sharp 10% correction, but history says September is rarely kind to crypto bulls.
Options Expiry Puts Market on Edge
Deribit data shows a massive 30,447 BTC contracts lined up for expiry, carrying a notional value of $3.38 billion. The infamous “max pain” point sits at $112,000, where the most options expire worthless. Right now, the put-call ratio is leaning bearish at 1.41, with puts making up nearly 30% of today’s action. That tilt hints at caution in the air, even though BTC has climbed 1.7% in the past 24 hours. Analyst Rekt Capital thinks the breakout above $112,500 could stick if Bitcoin closes strong around $113K—but the market still feels shaky.
September’s Reputation Looms
If there’s one thing traders know, it’s that September has a history of being brutal for Bitcoin. Greeks.live pointed out that institutional rollovers and quarterly settlements usually dampen flows during this month, leaving BTC vulnerable. On top of that, the broader equity correction isn’t helping sentiment either. Most big money seems to prefer staying cautious right now, even with hints of upside momentum.
Signs of Relief on the Horizon?
Not everything looks grim. On-chain data from CryptoQuant shows Bitcoin’s Value Days Destroyed (VDD) metric easing, meaning long-term holders aren’t dumping as heavily anymore. If demand starts to pick up while selling pressure keeps cooling, it could open the door for a stronger rally later in the month. Still, with options expiry and September seasonality hanging over the market, Bitcoin remains on a razor’s edge—one push could send it flying higher, or tumbling back toward the lows.
