- AVAX has been repeatedly rejected near the $14.83 resistance, making it a key decision level
- An inverse head and shoulders pattern suggests a potential bullish breakout if resistance breaks
- A confirmed move above $14.83 could open upside targets near $17.59 and $18.41
Avalanche’s AVAX is back at a familiar crossroads. After another week of choppy price action, the token is once again pressing into a level that could decide its short-term direction. AVAX briefly rode the broader market bounce up to around $14.85, then slipped back below $13.50, a move that felt abrupt but not exactly surprising. According to analyst Ali Martinez, this pullback has brought AVAX into a decision zone where the next move likely sets the tone.
Why the $14.83 Level Keeps Stopping AVAX
In a January 16 post on X, Martinez shared a closer look at AVAX’s 12-hour chart, pointing out a price zone that has quietly become a problem. The $14.83 area has now rejected price three times over the past month. Each time AVAX approaches it, sellers show up, almost on cue.
That kind of repeated rejection usually signals more than coincidence. Some traders likely see this area as a clean profit-taking zone. Others may be leaning on historical price behavior, expecting a pullback whenever AVAX pushes into that range. Either way, supply has been strong enough there to stall every attempt so far.
A Bullish Pattern Is Still Taking Shape
Despite those rejections, the broader structure isn’t all bad news. Martinez highlighted that AVAX has been forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern, a setup typically associated with bullish reversals. It’s not subtle once you spot it.
The left shoulder formed during an earlier dip and rebound. The head followed with a deeper drop toward $11.26, then a recovery. More recently, the right shoulder printed a higher low near $13.75, failing to revisit the depth of the prior low. All of the rebound highs connect back to that same stubborn resistance line at $14.83, which acts as the neckline of the pattern.
If AVAX can break above that neckline with conviction, it would suggest buying pressure is finally overpowering supply. Martinez sees that kind of move opening the door toward an initial target near $17.59. With sustained momentum, a push toward $18.41 isn’t off the table, representing roughly 35% upside from current levels. That’s the optimistic path, though it still needs confirmation.
Where AVAX Stands Right Now
At the time of writing, AVAX is trading around $13.61, down modestly on both the daily and weekly timeframes. Those small losses contrast with the bigger picture. On the monthly chart, AVAX is still up about 14.7%, hinting that the market may be attempting a broader trend shift after a weak Q4 2025.
For now, everything comes back to that same level. If AVAX can finally clear $14.83 and hold above it, the technical case strengthens quickly. If it fails again, the market may need more time, and possibly another dip, before any breakout attempt sticks. Either way, this next test looks important.
